Peak Oil and the Extinction of Humanity

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Global oil discovery peaked in 1962.

Since 2001, the value of oil discovered is less than the money spent looking for it. This suggests that the search for oil is coming to an end.

The number of operating oil rigs in the world today is half the number in 1981.

Employment in the oil industry has fallen from 1.65 million in 1982 to 641,000 today, and continues to decline.

Oil comes gushing from oil wells because it is under pressure. As the oil is removed from the ground, the pressure is released and the remaining oil becomes increasingly expensive and energy intensive to remove from the ground. The "reserves" claimed by oil producers are largely an illusion and will never see the light of day. In fact, some reported oil reserves are fraudulent overestimates intended to boost share prices. For their own reasons, even OPEC countries grossly inflate oil reserve estimates.

According to a Swedish study done by a team from the University of Uppsala, recoverable world oil reserves are 80% less than previously thought.

Oil production peaks:

Libya 1970
Venezuela 1970
U.S.A. 1971
Iran 1974 Romania 1976 Brunei 1979
Chili 1982
Peru 1982 
 Cameroon 1985
North America 1985
Soviet Union 1987
 Indonesia 1997 Trinidad 1997
Argentina 1998
Columbia 1999
Europe 2000
Middle East 2000
Asian-Pacific 2000
Central & South America 2002

So far, a total 51 oil-producing countries have passed their peak oil production. Only 16 oil producing countries have not yet peaked.

Even Saudi Arabia may have already peaked. We will know soon.

All major regions of the world except Africa have passed their peak oil production.

A decade ago it was thought that the Caspian region held 350 billion barrels of oil. This estimate has since been downgraded to 40 billion barrels of heavy sour oil.

At some point, oil producing countries will start saving oil for their own people.

Natural gas production peaks:

U.S. 1973
Russia 1992
Italy 1994
Netherlands 1996
Venezuela 1998
Algeria 1999
Indonesia 1999
U.K. 2000
Argentina 2000
Canada 2001

In 2004, Canada's reserves of natural gas totaled 56 trillion cubic feet.

American consumption of natural gas is more than 22 trillion cubic feet per year.

It takes the energy of two barrels of oil to obtain three barrels of oil from Canada's tar sands. This energy is being provided by natural gas. The process also uses 2.5 - 4 barrels of fresh water to produce one barrel of bitumen (tar), and generates horrendous pollution.

The world's largest oil fields are ALL over 40 years old.

80% of the oil produced today comes from fields found more than 30 years ago.

The United States uses 25 barrels of oil per person per year, compared to 12 in Western Europe, two in China, and one in India.

Oil provides 90% of the energy used for transportation.

As gasoline prices rise, hydrogen generated by wind power will soon be competitive.

If the cost of defending oil shipments from the middle east was added to the price of gasoline, then hydrogen would be competitive now.

 The military cost of protecting pipelines and tanker routes, borne mainly by U.S. taxpayers, is around $15 to $20 per barrel.
- The Oil Depletion Analysis Center

This does not include the eventual total cost of the U.S. invasion of Iraq which, according to the Congressional Budget Office, is scheduled to cost $2.7 trillion by 2017. And there is Afghanistan...

The cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan double when hidden costs are included. These hidden costs are interest on debt incurred to pay for the wars, the cost of treating wounded veterans, and the higher cost of oil.

Then there is the multi-trillion dollar cost of global warming and climate change caused by burning hydrocarbons.

Legendary oilman T. Boone Pickens has a plan.

Commercial electrolyzers can achieve electricity to hydrogen conversion above 75%.

A fuel cell is electrolysis in reverse, combining hydrogen and oxygen to create water and electricity. The reaction happens spontaneously in the presence of a catalyst.

Fuel cells are 50% - 60% efficient at converting hydrogen back to electricity. However, they use 30% of this electricity to operate peripheral devices such as pumps and compressors associated with the fuel cell itself. The net result is 30% - 40% efficiency.

Internal combustion engines are about 17% efficient, and cost only $30 per kilowatt.

A gas turbine is about 33% efficient.

Hydrogen powered hybrid electric cars have a greater range than battery electric cars and are faster to refuel.

An automobile requires 10 to 20 kilowatts

A home requires 1 to 15 kilowatts.

Fuel cells presently cost $3,000 - $4,000 per kilowatt and will operate for up to 40,000 hours continuously under constant load & temperature. However, this is reduced to 4,000 hours of intermittent operation under variable load & temperature. The price should come down with mass production, but longevity is an issue. A hydrogen powered hybrid car equipped with batteries and a small gas turbine would be more economical, last longer, and use existing technology.

In our opinion, fuel cells are a red herring, a delaying tactic to promote continued use of petrochemicals.

Fuel cells that require hydrocarbons as their source of hydrogen energy are not useful except in the very short term, because  the supply of hydrocarbons is limited.

Our favorite alternative fuel is compressed air.

Food travels an average of 1,300 miles to reach a North American dinner plate. This may not be possible as global petroleum supplies run out. Everyone would benefit from the "four-season harvest" so that locally grown food is available all through the year. Farm and garden production can be maximized using Sonic Bloom.

Sprouts are fresh produce that everyone can make in the kitchen.

Given that rising fuel prices may make food production and delivery uncertain, perhaps this would be a good time for every home to create a two year stockpile of dried beans, legumes, grains, tinned food, etc.

If you buy this dried food in small plastic wrapped packages and store them in plastic bins, they should be safe from spoilage, rodents and insects.

The current price of solar cells is about $5 per watt or $5,000 per kilowatt. However, unlike fuel cells that need hydrogen fuel, sunlight is free.

The price of solar cells has declined 95% since the early 1970s. However, the price has stopped declining due to rising global demand.

The price of large wind turbines has also stopped declining due to rising global demand.

Enough sunlight hits the roof of the average house to generate all the electricity that the house requires.

The following individuals have solar powered off-the-grid homes:
- George W. Bush
- Dick Cheney
- Al Gore

India is a world leader in the utilization of photovoltaics.

High Voltage Alternating Current electrical transmission lines lose 5% - 8% of the electricity they carry.

High Voltage Direct Current transmission lines lose as little as 4% over 1,000 kilometers, plus they do not generate health-damaging effects for people who live nearby.

Nuclear energy has many hidden costs from:
- radiation
- accidents
- bomb material
- terrorist attacks
- no liability insurance
- radioactive waste.

Y2K was a non-event only because government and industry thoroughly prepared for it over a period of five to ten years.

There are no preparations being made for the end of the petrochemical era, other than preparations for resource wars.

Crises are problems that have been ignored too long.

"All great crises were ignored until it became too late to do anything about it." - Matthew Simmons

In 1972 the Club of Rome (COR) published The Limits to Growth which predicted a mass die-off of the human race if certain preventive measures were not taken.

"In hindsight, the COR turned out to be right. We simply wasted 30 important years by ignoring this work." - Matthew Simmons

To wait for the government to act is suicidal. Ordinary people must act now if there is to be any hope for humanity.

Two recent examples of societies without enough oil are North Korea and Cuba. The North Koreans starved. The Cubans switched to bicycles and organic agriculture. Leadership makes all the difference.

Why would an oil company want to sell a barrel of oil for $60, when in a few years it will be worth $200 (or $2000)? Oil companies WANT this to happen, and to the extent they control the government, nothing will be done to prevent it.

Americans will always do the right thing. After they've exhausted all the alternatives.
- Winston Churchill 

“There is no additional supply.”
-
OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro, August 3, 2004.

"This much is certain: no initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year." - Kenneth Deffeyes, page 149.

"The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years." - Kenneth Deffeyes, page 1.

"There are plenty of energy sources other than fossil fuels. Running out of energy in the long run is not the problem. The bind comes during the next 10 years: getting over our dependence on crude oil." - Kenneth Deffeyes, page 176.

The movie "End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream" is now available for purchase on DVD.

Watch the movie A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash

Project Censored comments on Peak Oil and Media and Government Ignore Dwindling Oil Supplies.

Peak oil may be bad for the environment if it leads to increased use of coal and other high carbon fuels.

Earth near global warming tipping points?

Rooftop wind turbines:
Mag-Wind
Cleanfield
Swift
Windsave
WestTech

Calculate the solar energy available at your location worldwide. Solar energy in Canada.

Green Roofs: Building for the future.

Finavera Renewables Inc. (FVR) has a technology using ocean waves to generate electricity.

The Claymore/Mac Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN) holds 25 global solar energy stocks.

The PowerShares Global Wind Energy ETF (PWND) holds 32 global wind energy stocks.

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) holds stocks of 40 different companies involved in alternative energy production or technology.

Van Eck Global's Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX) has stocks of 30 companies engaged in alternative energy production.

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge ETF (QCLN), covers five subsectors of the alternative energy industry: renewable power generation, renewable fuels, energy storage and conversion, energy intelligence, and advanced energy-related materials.

PowerShares  Cleantech Portfolio ETF (PZD), holds shares of about 50 companies, including alternative energy, water resources and purification, advanced materials, and logistics.

PowerShares Progressive Energy Portfolio ETF (PUW), includes shares of companies whose products lessen the environmental impact of existing fuel sources and improves the efficiency of their use.

List of alternative energy stocks.

Greatness requires a measure of self-sufficiency. The interdependence fostered by trade is fine up to a point, but to stake one's life on it and to give up self-sufficiency for the essentials of life makes one vulnerable and is a sign of weakness. This principle applies to all levels of society from individuals to nations.

 

 

 

 

 

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ESTIMATED PRODUCTION TO 2100                                         End 2007

Amount                 Gb

Annual Rate - Regular Oil

Gb

Peak Date

Regular Oil

Mb/d

2007

2010

2015

2020

2030

Total

Past

Future

Total

US-48

3.7

3.1

2.4

1.8

1.0

200

1970

Known Fields

New

 

Europe

4.3

3.5

2.5

1.7

0.9

76

2000

1009

725

141

1875

Russia

9.7

9.7

7.8

6.2

3.9

230

1987

 

866

 

ME Gulf

19

19

20

20

17

663

2015

All Liquids

Other

29

27

23

19

13

706

2005

1151

1299

2450

World

66

63

55

48

36

1875

2005

2007 Base Scenario
M.East producing at capacity(anomalous reporting corrected)

Annual Rate - Other

 

 

Heavy etc.

3.9

4.6

5.2

5.5

6.2

184

2030

Deepwater

6.7

8.8

9.1

7.5

3.6

85

2013

Regular Oil excludes Heavy Oils (inc. Tarsands, oilshales); Polar & Deepwater Oil; & gasplant NGL

Polar

1.2

1.3

1.7

2.2

3.0

52

2030

Gas Liquid

7.7

7.7

8.0

8.4

8.2

228

2027

Rounding

 

 

1

-2

-2

26

 

Revised     06/05/2008

ALL

85

85

80

70

55

2450

2008

Chart courtesy of ASPO - Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas newsletter #91 July 2008.

 

Introduction

Global oil production is peaking. We are at the top of the "bell curve" for global oil production. It is expected we will start sliding down the backside of the bell curve starting about 2008. The decline in oil production will be precipitous and humanity is about to go over a cliff. By 2030, global oil production is predicted to be reduced by about 35%, with the decline still continuing after. Do an Internet search for "peak oil" or "oil production peak" and see for yourself.  

We will know all of this for certain when we have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. However, oil experts are shouting from the rooftops now, if anyone will listen.

Unless alternative sources of energy such as wind, solar, geothermal, and biodiesel from algae are developed very soon, it will not be possible to develop them at all because production and transportation at this time depend on oil. If we continue on our present course, the human population on the planet will experience a significant die-off while oil production falls.

Biologists looking at parallels in nature and human history suggest that there is a balance between populations and their energy base. When the population exceeds their energy base, the population will decline until balance is restored. For humanity without oil and without a replacement for oil, the decline in population may be about 90%, though total extinction is a real possibility.

The only hope for the bulk of mankind to survive is to develop alternatives to oil now, before oil begins to decline. As a fuel for cars, battery electricity and compressed air are practical possibilities. A car is being developed in France that can go 300 kilometers (180 miles) on a tank of compressed air. It takes only $2 of electricity to fill the tank. The car has an onboard air compressor, so all you need to do is plug in the car each night and you can drive all day. Alternatively, "filling stations" can offer a quick recharge from large compressed air tanks. Plug-in hybrid cars with a battery and super-capacitor should be on the market by 2010. Biodiesel can be made economically in great quantities from fast growing algae. Algae can also be a source of jet fuel.

Heat for homes and electricity for the power grid can be provided by wind, solar and geothermal. All of these can be applied on a small scale to generate heat and power for homes and businesses.

The enormous amount of energy needed for national electrical grids can be supplied cost-effectively by wind turbines, thermal solar and geothermal. The installation of millions of wind turbines around the world and thermal solar systems in deserts could replace the loss of energy from the decline in hydrocarbons. Variations in the amount of wind in local areas can be offset by having grid-connected wind turbines widely distributed, so that the amount of wind averages out. Also, there is now an economical battery called a "flow battery" that can store wind and solar power for when it is needed. By these means, wind and solar become reliable sources of electrical power.

Plus, there are many places in the world where heat in the earth comes close to the surface. Turbines powered by steam from these hot spots could economically provide all the electricity the world needs many times over. Here is a readily available replacement for all the hydrocarbons presently being burned.

The price of oil is already up dramatically since conventional oil production peaked during 2000 - 2005. As oil production falls and global consumption continues to climb, oil prices will rise. Who knows how high the price will go? It will be bid up internationally. Everything that depends on oil will also go up in price. Anyone who wants to implement alternatives would be well advised to do it soon, while the price of oil is affordable. If we wait, not only will the cost be higher, but the money available will be less because the global economy will begin to contract, unemployment will soar, government revenues will decline, etc. By some estimates, demand for oil exceeded supply starting about the middle of 2005. 

It would be good for those who can see what is happening to let others know. Only collective action now can save the situation.

The Details

The United States has 5% of the world's population and uses 25% of the world's oil. China's oil consumption (7.6% of global consumption) has now passed Japan (7.4%), making China the world's #2 oil consuming nation. Oil consumption is increasing in all areas of the world, but the increase is most rapid in the developing countries. World oil demand since 1988 has increased 25%, from 64.95 million barrels per day (b/d) to 82.15 million b/d. In these sixteen years, European consumption is up 16%, US consumption up 18%, Japan's up 25%, and China's up 175%.

There are insufficient hydrocarbons in the world for the entire population of the world to rise to the American level of consumption. World oil production per capita peaked in 1979 and has been declining since then. With rising global demand for hydrocarbons and a supply that has stopped increasing, demand has exceeded supply starting in 2005.

In 1956, Dr. King Hubbert predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Hubbert was widely criticized by oil experts and economists, but in 1971 Hubbert's prediction came true. U.S. oil production has declined 40% since 1971. Hubbert's methods of oil reserve analysis predict that the peak in global oil production is occurring NOW. At the same time, global demand for oil is growing rapidly. Shortages and rising prices are inevitable. Even a global recession would only postpone the approaching shortage of oil.

In 1995, Petroconsultants Pty. Ltd., a respected oil industry consulting firm, released a report called, 'World Oil Supply 1930-2050'. This report cost $32,000 per copy and predicted global oil production would peak around the year 2000.

In fact, worldwide conventional oil production did peak in 2000 and the years that followed. We are on a bumpy plateau, the top of the bell curve for global oil production. People will become more aware of this as we slide down the far side of the bell curve.

One of the reasons oil production will decline precipitously is because the size of oil reserves around the world have been overestimated. The "value" of oil companies is directly related to the size of their reserves, so there is an advantage to them to exaggerate these estimates. OPEC countries have an agreement that limits their export quotas of oil in proportion to their reserves, so they also have an incentive to inflate their reserve estimates. Plus, there is a big difference between total reserves in the ground and reserves that may be ultimately recoverable.

Oil initially is very easy to extract because it is under pressure and flows to the surface automatically. However, as the oil flows, the pressure is reduced and the oil becomes increasingly difficult to extract. When oil is first pumped from a well, it can take the energy of one barrel of oil to get 100 barrels of oil from the ground. This is called the Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) or Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI). Today on average it takes the energy of one barrel of oil to get ten barrels of oil from the ground. When it takes the energy of one barrel of oil to get one barrel of oil from the ground then the Energy Profit is zero and there ceases to be any benefit from the activity. (When the Energy Profit Ratio is 1/1 = 1, then the Energy Profit is zero.) According to a Swedish study done by a team from the University of Uppsala, ultimately recoverable world oil reserves are 80% less than previously thought.

When examining alternatives to conventional oil, it is important to think not just in terms of money, but in terms of energy in versus energy out. Canada's tar sands, for example, require 7 or more barrels of water plus the energy of two barrels of oil to obtain three barrels of oil (the water ends up polluted in holding ponds that may eventually be as large as Lake Ontario). Coal is experiencing declining efficiency as a source of energy. At one time coal had an EPR of over 50, but has since fallen to an EPR of 8. The EPR of coal is expected to turn negative by 2030. Coal, natural gas and uranium have their own "Hubbert" curves. Nuclear energy is surprisingly inefficient when you include ALL the costs associated with nuclear power plants. The Energy Profit of nuclear energy is barely above zero. Costs often ignored when considering nuclear power include: radiation, accidents, production of bomb material, vulnerability to terrorist attacks, no liability insurance, and storage of radioactive waste for many thousands of years.

The price of coal doubled in 2007. During the past five years, the price of coal has increased 600%, from US$20/ton to more than US$120/ton. Coal produces 40% of the world's electricity.

There is not enough natural gas in North America to supply all the gas powered electrical generating plants presently on the drawing boards. Natural gas production in the U.S. and Canada has peaked and is declining in both countries. If your home is heated by natural gas, you might want to start looking for an alternative because no one can guarantee the supply of natural gas. About 3/4 of the homes in Canada and half the homes in the United States are heated with natural gas. Most of the remainder are heated by oil. Shortages of both fuels are likely to happen within the coming decade. We suggest that each homeowner consider installing a ground source heat pump to heat and cool the home.

Sources of the world's energy:

Oil40%
Natural Gas23%
Coal23%
Hydro7%
Nuclear6%
Other1%

Total

100%

The dependency on hydrocarbons (oil, natural gas, coal) indicated by the above table is the result of complacency. Everyone knows that hydrocarbons are a finite resource and will run out one day. However, the general belief is that we have at least two or three decades before this event happens. The surprise is that on a planetary scale conventional oil may be peaking NOW, and that problems begin NOW when production levels off and then starts to decline. The growth of the world economy needs energy, and if oil is peaking then the energy to grow can no longer come from oil. Unless alternatives to oil are developed, the world economy will stall and then contract in step with declining oil supplies. In truth, the population of the planet is faced with an emergency unlike any world war, plague or other disaster in its experience. We can fight like rats over a declining resource until no oil and no people are left, or we can work together on a planetary scale to usher in a new post-hydrocarbon era of peace and prosperity for all.

How a Population Goes Extinct

A population that grows in response to abundant but finite resources, tends to exhaust these resources completely. By the time individuals discover remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. And in its struggle to survive, the last generation uses up every scrap, so that nothing remains that would sustain even a small population.
- Dr. David Price

***

The imminent collapse of global petrochemical supplies has been intentionally moved forward in time by the "powers that be". They have accomplished this by refusing to implement conservation measures and alternative energy systems, plus they have encouraged extravagant consumption and waste. It has been a race between rising global population and the consumption of a finite resource. The intention is to cause the die-off of most of the world population BEFORE they have consumed all the available resources, so that something remains to support a small human population afterwards. In other words, they believe the die-off is inevitable and have no interest in utilizing the creativity and intelligence of the human race to adapt to the end of petrochemicals and successfully implement an alternative energy regime.

"We need an energy policy that encourages consumption." - George W. Bush

There are those who would take a "wait and see" attitude before taking action. This is a formula for disaster, because oil is needed for all production, including the production of wind turbines, solar cells and other potential alternatives to oil. Delay makes the transition increasingly difficult. The tiny 1% of total energy from "other" highlights the neglect by governments unduly influenced by big oil companies. This MUST change NOW! The actual peak for oil production will be known for certain after the fact. Politicians who wait for this certainty are gambling with the lives of their people and deserve to starve and freeze in the dark with them. Why would anyone want to take this risk? For the people of each country, there is no downside from beginning to create a post-hydrocarbon era now.

Even for the big oil companies, there is no longer any risk of loss by the development of competing sources of energy. The oil companies have sold their oil and made their profits. Their industry is now beginning its inevitable decline. Watch the newspapers and you will see that the oil companies are already beginning to consolidate and sell their assets. Employment in the oil industry has declined from about 1.6 million people to just over 600,000 in the last 20 years. The number of operating drilling rigs has dropped by half during that time. Since 2001, oil companies have spent more money exploring for oil than they have earned in new oil discovered.

Energy SourceEnergy Profit Ratio (EPR)
Corn EthanolBelow 1
NuclearSlightly greater than 1
Oil from tar sands1.5
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG)2
Coal with scrubbers2.5
Conventional ground source heat pump3
Cellulosic Ethanol 3
Biodiesel from soybeans 3
Thermal Depolymerization6.66
Coal8
Conventional Oil10
Natural Gas10
Biodiesel from algae 10+
Hydro Electricity11
Electricity generated by steam turbines using heat from geological hot spots 13
Solar (photovoltaic)15
Solar (thermal) 25
Wind50

Newer solar devices such as thin film panels and concentrating systems can have an Energy Profit Ratio as high as 15. Solar thermal generating towers in the desert are even more efficient. See USA solar energy map. Large wind turbines can have an EPR as high as 50. The EPR of wind, solar and geothermal vary greatly by location. However, given that the EPR of wind, solar and geothermal can be so much higher than the EPR of oil or coal, it makes sense to invest available resources in favorable locations for wind, solar and geothermal rather than limiting ourselves to exploring for more oil or digging out more coal. The best location for solar is in deserts, both because the amount of sunshine is maximum and also because the land is not otherwise being used for agriculture. Solar roofs are also a productive use of space, generating both electricity and hot water.

The EPR of biodiesel made from algae when mass produced will probably be around 10, though it could be higher as superior production methods evolve. Spending billions of dollars to harvest dirty oil from tar sands at an EPR of 1.5 does not make much sense when compared to obtaining clean oil from algae. Plus, biodiesel offers other advantages such as no emission of greenhouse gasses, creation of local employment, and improved balance of payments for the nation. The present importation of oil by the United States is causing the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world.

We suggest that biodiesel, geothermal, wind and solar energy are the best way forward.

Wind energy is cheaper than electricity generated by coal or nuclear energy. Due to recent price increases for natural gas, wind power is now competitive with electricity generated by natural gas. Liquid natural gas emits almost as much greenhouse gasses as coal.

A rough calculation suggests that, combined with energy conservation, one or two 5 megawatt wind turbines per square kilometer would be sufficient to replace the 40% of our total energy consumption that comes from oil. At least this is a starting point.

Wind turbines generate electricity only when the wind is blowing. By connecting wind turbines to the electrical grid, fluctuations in the amount of wind in local areas averages out. By this means, wind becomes a reliable source of energy. Also, there is a new kind of battery that can economically store electricity for when it is needed. This new battery is called a "flow battery".

 

Flow Battery

A flow battery stores energy in two complementary electrolyte fluids separated by a membrane. Surplus electrolytes are held in external tanks and can be pumped into the battery as required. Thus, the energy storage capacity of the flow battery can be increased easily and cheaply by increasing the size of the storage tanks and adding electrolytes.

Efficient vanadium "redox" flow batteries have been developed by Dr. Maria Skyllas-Kazacos at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. The technology is now owned by VRB Power Systems (VRB) in Vancouver, Canada. VRB Power Systems has built a production line that can make thousands of these batteries in various sizes each year.

King Island, near Australia, has been using a flow battery connected to its wind farm since 2003. The battery has 70,000 liters of electrolytes in tanks, and can deliver 400 kilowatts for 2 hours. Since installing the flow battery, wind generated electricity is providing more than 40% of the island's electricity, up from 12%.

Castle Valley in Utah, U.S.A. installed a 2-megawatt-hour flow battery as an alternative to increasing the capacity of a 300 kilometer transmission line. The battery is charged at night and helps meet peak power demand.

Small flow batteries are used in Japan to provide back-up power to industrial plants.

The Sorne Hill wind farm at Donegal, Ireland is installing a 12-megawatt-hour flow battery.

The flow battery returns about 70% of the electricity used to charge it, and maintains this relatively high level of efficiency for many years. Flow batteries are scalable from small 1-kilowatt-hour to many hundreds of megawatts.

For more information see "A Bank for Wind Power," New Scientist magazine, 12 January 2007, pages 39-41.

"Maps of European wind conditions reveal that the continent’s present electric power consumption could be supplied 100-fold with onshore installations alone; offshore installations add enormous additional capacity...By 2003 the installed capacity already reached 39 GW." - Rudolf Rechsteiner (Swiss MP)

Ground source heat pumps for heating and cooling buildings use the constant (approximately 55°F) temperature of the surface of the earth. However, the deeper you go the warmer the earth becomes. 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 miles down the earth is hot enough to boil water and create super-heated steam. This could be a source of virtually unlimited clean and economical electrical energy and hot water for every location on earth. Oil companies know how to drill that deep. A study by MIT has concluded there are no technical barriers. Oil companies have formed a consortium called GeoPOS (Geo-Power in the Oil Sands) to develop this technology as a source of energy to extract oil from Canada's tar sands.

There are many places in the world where high temperatures in the earth come close to the surface. Turbines powered by steam from these 400°F hot spots could economically provide all the electricity the world needs many times over. Companies such as Ormat Technologies (ORA) and U.S. Geothermal (UGTH) are already seeking out and developing these hot spots. Iceland generates much of its electricity from geothermal energy. See maps of European and U.S.A. geothermal resources.

Biofuel from algae is an economical source of liquid fuels.

Biofuel Source Gallons of Oil Per Acre
Corn 18
Soy 48
Safflower 83
Sunflower 102
Rapeseed 127
Palm Oil 635
Algae 1,000 - 15,000+

Algae is grown in shallow ponds, so it does not require topsoil. Algae can be grown in deserts and arid lands, so it need not displace food crops. Algae is about 50% efficient at converting the sun's energy to plant mass, so algae is a form of solar energy. Algae can yield from one thousand to more than fifteen thousand gallons of fuel per acre (depending on triglyceride content), making it the highest yielding feedstock for biodiesel. Algae can be used to create a variety of products including biodiesel, ethanol, jet fuel, syngas, high-protein animal feeds, agricultural fertilizers, biopolymers (plastic), and glycerin. The amount of land required is so small that the United States could make all the fuel it requires many times over from algae. 

According to the Hawaiian company HR BioPetroleum "algae oil is projected to be produced at around US$50-$90 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), which is significantly below current crude oil prices. Longer term, with further increases in algae productivity, algae-to-oil production cost is expected to fall to around US$30-$50 per boe".

Algae is the original source of most of the oil hidden within the earth's crust. Oil made from algae grown today is carbon neutral because its carbon comes from carbon dioxide taken from the atmosphere. Search the Internet for "algae biodiesel" to learn more about oil from algae. Here is a photo of Texas algae farm owned by PetroSun Inc. (PSUD) Watch the 2 minute video by GreenStar Products (GSPI) and the 3 minute video by Solazyme. The Solazyme process uses plant residues (corn stover, switch grass, wood chips, sugar cane, etc.) to feed the algae. Other companies use sewage sludge, smoke stack emissions, and various waste materials. Watch the 27 minute interview of Glen Kertz, CEO of Valcent Products (VCTPF), on algae fuel. Here is an interesting article on algae fuel, and here are more articles 1, 2.

High tech enclosed systems to grow algae can cost $1 million per acre, whereas open pond systems can cost less than 5% of that amount. At today's fuel prices algae biodiesel from both types of systems should be highly profitable. GreenStar Products, Inc. has developed a Hybrid Algae Production System (HAPS) that gains many of the benefits of an enclosed system while retaining the low cost of open pond systems. GreenStar advanced diesel refining. GreenStar Products, Inc. is looking for joint venture partners around the world to develop algae biodiesel facilities using technology provided by GreenStar.

A process called "ultrasonic extraction" is used to remove oil from the algae. Do an Internet search for "ultrasonic extraction algae" to learn more. The basic process of making biodiesel from vegetable oil is explained at www.fuelmeister.com.

Widescale Biodiesel Production from Algae
Michael Briggs, University of New Hampshire, Physics Department

(revised August 2004)

"the authors estimated a cost per hectare of $40,000 for algal ponds. In their model, the algal ponds would be built around the Salton Sea (in the Sonora desert) feeding off of the agricultural waste streams that normally pollute the Salton Sea with over 10,000 tons of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers each year. The estimate is based on fairly large ponds, 8 hectares in size each. To be conservative (since their estimate is fairly optimistic), we'll arbitrarily increase the cost per hectare by 100% as a margin of safety. That brings the cost per hectare to $80,000. Ponds equivalent to their design could be built around the country, using wastewater streams (human, animal, and agricultural) as feed sources. We found that at NREL's yield rates, 15,000 square miles (3.85 million hectares) of algae ponds would be needed to replace all petroleum transportation fuels with biodiesel. At the cost of $80,000 per hectare, that would work out to roughly $308 billion to build the farms.

The operating costs (including power consumption, labor, chemicals, and fixed capital costs (taxes, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, and return on investment) worked out to $12,000 per hectare. That would equate to $46.2 billion per year for all the algae farms, to yield all the oil feedstock necessary for the entire country.
"

Biodiesel refineries all over the world have shut down due to the high cost of feedstock (soybeans, etc.) These refineries would do well to consider establishing an algae farm nearby.

Corn ethanol is a popular "alternative" fuel today, but corn is not a very good source of biofuel. Cellulosic ethanol uses enzymes or acid to break down cellulose into simple sugars, which are then fermented to produce ethanol. This process could break down corn stocks and straw, allowing the corn and grain to be used as food. It could also break down wood chips, waste paper, switch grass and other sources of cellulose. There is so much cellulose available that this developing technology has the potential reduce American oil imports by up to 80%. The ability to use crop residues would provide a new source of revenue to farmers. Flex-fuel cars can run on E85 which is a mixture of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. It costs only $200 to convert a car to flex-fuel. In Brazil, flexible fuel cars are designed to run on any mix of alcohol and gasoline, including 100% alcohol.

The ecological danger hidden in this process is that scientists and companies will be too greedy and careless. See Destruction of All Plant Life on Earth. Instead of breeding one bug to "do it all", the process needs to be done in stages so that when the bacteria or fungi doing each stage inevitably escape into the environment, all plant life on earth is not threatened.

However, the most productive source of cellulose is algae. Algae is a prolific source of cellulose, simple sugars and triglycerides (oil). The bulk of the fuel value of algae comes from the oil it contains. This is why we suggest that ethanol will be a byproduct of biodiesel production from algae, with the main liquid fuel of the future being biodiesel.

Replacing oil will require a mix of alternatives. Europeans use half the energy per capita compared to North Americans, for a comparable standard of living. Most new cars sold in Europe today are powered by clean burning diesel engines. Diesel engines are 40% more efficient than gasoline engines. This illustrates the potential for energy conservation in North America.

Vehicles can be propelled by compressed air, batteries, hydrogen, biodiesel, etc. However, this choice will be made by the end user. The main task at hand is to develop primary sources of energy. Compressed air, batteries, and hydrogen are energy carriers or storage devices, they are not a source of energy. Wind power, solar power, biodiesel, and geothermal energy are primary sources of energy.

The economic benefits from becoming self-sufficient for energy are substantial. Why import oil and send the nation's wealth overseas when all the energy needed is readily available at home? Development of wind energy creates five times more jobs than an equal investment in nuclear energy. A new profession of skilled workers retrofitting homes and businesses for energy independence and increased energy efficiency would create many thousands of jobs that could not easily be "outsourced" to developing countries. Becoming self-sufficient for energy will make the economy less vulnerable to disruptions in oil supply and allow the nation to abstain from "oil wars." Widely distributed energy supplies give the economy resilience in the face of adverse weather, terrorist attacks, and other disruptions. Increased efficiency in business and industry would make the economy more competitive internationally.

The pending collapse of global petrochemical supply is one of the primary motivations behind the population "control" movement that is urgently striving to reduce global human population levels by every means available.

We must prove their assumptions wrong by demonstrating that a high consumption of petrochemicals is not necessary for modern civilization or the present world population is in for a very bad time, either through unpreparedness for the collapse of energy supplies, or at the hands of those who see and fear this collapse on the horizon. It has been suggested that in the absence of oil, the world will be able to feed only about 2 billion people.

"My father rode a camel, I drive a car, my son rides in a jet airplane -- his son will ride a camel." - Saudi saying.

We must create a post petroleum global economy and society now. This is a project that everyone can participate in. Use your creativity! Your survival and the survival of billions of other people may depend on it very soon. "Think globally and act locally."

Wind Energy Offers:

  • quick construction (2 - 20 weeks), global availability

  • low capital cost (cheaper capital cost than coal or nuclear per kilowatt hour of electricity produced)

  • winter and summer production peaks (depending on location)

  • no emissions, no disposal costs (compare to nuclear), no fuel required

  • steadily falling costs due to mass production and more efficient installation

  • wind generated electricity is immune to oil and gas price fluctuations

  • there is enough wind to supply ALL energy requirements many times over everywhere in the world.

Wind power in the last six years has maintained a yearly growth rate of 26 percent and is the fastest growing electrical generation technology worldwide. See USA wind energy maps 1, 2.

 

Solar Power Tower

This design utilizes huge, flat, movable mirrors (heliostats) that track the sun, converging its rays on a solar collector at the top of the tower. The intense 400°C (750°F) heat at the top boils water, with the resulting steam blasted into turbines which generate electricity. This Spanish system has 624 mirrors, each having 120 square meters of surface area, and the tower's height is 115 metres (377 feet). The following clip gives a good glimpse at the setup:

 

 

From http://www.celsias.com/article/solar-towers/

Hydrogen vs. Compressed Air

Many people believe that the fuel of the future is hydrogen. Certainly hydrogen will play a role. However, we believe a better fuel for the future is air.

Look at the inefficiencies involved with hydrogen. Electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen and oxygen is about 75% efficient. So there is an initial loss of 25% of the energy input.

A gas turbine or fuel cell is about 30% to 40% efficient at converting the hydrogen back into electricity. So at best you have lost 60% of the remaining energy.

Plus the hydrogen is a very light gas and must be highly compressed or cooled and liquefied before it can be used as a fuel for automobiles and other vehicles. Given that the gas is going to be compressed anyway, why not use compression as the store of energy and forget about all the previous steps? Compressed air is an excellent store of energy and compressed air engines are very efficient and economical to build and operate.

Internal combustion engines are only about 17% efficient. This is why we predict that replacing gasoline engines with compressed air or battery electric engines will result in a dramatic reduction in energy consumption. By this means it may be necessary to replace only a small fraction of the energy presently being consumed in the form of gasoline.

Have a look at http://www.theaircar.com. This car will travel up to 300 KM on one tank of compressed air. It takes only about $2 of electricity to run the air compressor to fill the tank. This technology has recently been licensed by Tata Motors of India.

 

Efficiency of Energy Storage Devices

Energy Storage Device Energy In Energy Out
     
Lithium Ion Batteries 100% 86%
Lead Acid Batteries 100% 77%
Pumped Water 100% 77%
Vanadium Redox Flow Battery 100% 70%
Compressed Air 100% 64%
Compressed Hydrogen 100% 32%
Liquid Hydrogen 100% 25%

 

 

The Solution to the Coming Energy Crisis

The solution to the coming global energy crisis caused by the decline of petroleum production will probably look something like this:

1. Shortages, blackouts and rising sea levels will make alternatives attractive at any price. Energy in all forms will cost more. This will spur a serious effort for conservation and the development of alternatives.

2. The new main sources of energy will be wind power, solar, biodiesel and geothermal. The development of alternatives can be accelerated by a carbon tax on polluting fuels, feed-in tariffs that encourage development of alternatives by giving the energy they produce a higher price, and the creation of a market for carbon tax credits.

3. Certain areas of the world favor massive power generation. These include deserts for solar energy, geological hot areas for geothermal energy, and areas with much wind. The continental power grid needs to be enhanced with the construction of new high voltage direct current power lines to carry energy long distances from these areas to where it is needed.

4. The vanadium redox flow battery can stabilize the output of wind